martes, junio 12, 2007

Sobre Burbujas!

El artículo de este link no tiene desperdicio.
Acá lo que más me llamó la atención y que habla sobre burbujas especulativas:

"One Down, Many Yet to Fall" headlines the midyear report in economist Gary Shilling's Insight Newsletter. America's headed into a perfect storm: "An unusual confluence of five forces in recent years created a virtual world of financial speculation that departed spectacularly from the real economic world, the 'grand disconnect' we've called it." The five forces of "runaway speculation" are:

* Global liquidity, fueled by the housing bubble, trade deficits and excessive corporate cash, all being recycled.
* Investors' sense of entitlement to "20% annual returns each and every year," fueled by a long bull market.
* Recent lack of volatility coupled with belief the Fed will "bail them out" has "desensitized many investors."
* Investor risk appetite: "Aggressively taking huge risks in a wide variety of speculation."
* And the "the insatiable American consumer" on a 25-year spending binge, borrowing long-term to spend today, driven by instant gratification while savings dropped from 12% to zero.

Shilling still sees subprimes triggering the meltdown. But like Bernstein, Bookstaber and Grantham, he also feels the speculative excesses of the private equity deals may beat subprimes to the punch: "Just as the U.S. housing bubble is bursting, speculation elsewhere will come to a violent end, if history is any guide. Some astute pioneers, including Richard Bookstaber, who designed various derivative-laden strategies over the years, now fear that financial derivatives and hedge funds - focal points of today's huge leverage - will trigger financial meltdown."

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